Ethereum’s ‘Rare Oversold Signal’ Hints at ETH Price Rebound

Key takeaways:

• Ether’s “rare oversold” RSI, historically tied to major ETH price rallies, suggests a price reversal in the short-term.

• ETH traders say price must stay above the $3,800-$3,900 range to avoid more losses.

Ether (ETH) traders expect a short-term bounce as a key ETH price metric sinks to its lowest levels in several months.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView revealed extremely “oversold” conditions on the ETH/USD relative strength index (RSI).

ETH price dip sends RSI back to April

Ether’s 20% drop below $4,000 from $4,800 over the last two weeks has significantly impacted low-time frame RSI.

On the four-hour chart, the RSI fell from local highs of 82 on Sept. 13 to six-month lows of 14.5 on Thursday.

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Such a sharp decline is rare, taking ETH/USD from “overbought” to “oversold” in less than two weeks. The last time that the index measured so low was on April 7, when ETH/USD traded at $1,400.

RSI measures trend strength and contains three key levels for observers: the 30 “oversold” boundary, the 50 midpoint and the 70 “overbought” threshold.

When the price crosses these levels, depending on the direction, traders can make inferences about the future of a given uptrend or downtrend. During bull markets, ETH regularly spends extended periods in “overbought” territory.

“ETH RSI flashes extreme lows,” said crypto markets commentator Coin Bureau in an X post on Friday, adding that it is a “rare” signal from Ether’s price action.

“For just the 19th time in 10 years, $ETH’s 4H RSI has dropped below 15 — a rare oversold signal.”

With the latest drawdown, traders quickly suggested that the ETH price was due for a relief bounce due to seller exhaustion.

“The RSI is in the zone that triggers bullish reversal as it did in June,” analyst Mickybull Crypto said in an X post, while outlining “signs that the local bottom is likely” in for ETH.

Zooming out, fellow analyst Max Crypto said Ether’s “daily RSI is now the most oversold since June 2025,” adding: 

“The last time ETH was this much oversold, it rallied 134% in just 2 months.”

$ETH DAILY RSI IS NOW THE MOST OVERSOLD SINCE JUNE 2025.

LAST TIME ETH WAS THIS MUCH OVERSOLD, IT RALLIED 134% IN JUST 2 MONTHS. pic.twitter.com/UcKnSG4yF0

— Max Crypto (@MaxCryptoxx) September 25, 2025

As Cointelegraph reported, heavy accumulation by whales at lower levels supports the case of a possible short-term ETH price reversal. 

Key ETH price levels to watch at $4,000

While traders said bearish targets are still in play, there are several key price levels to watch above and below the spot price. 

The “last two times $ETH was this oversold on the 8H RSI, marked the bottom,” pseudonymous analyst Crypto Devil pointed out in a Friday X post. 

For Crypto Devil, the altcoin needs to hold above $3,900 to secure a “rally back to test the declining EMAs” around $4,100.

“3.9K’ish is the zone to hold technically if we want to remain bullish going into Q4.”

A deeper correction could see a retest of the $3,600 support or into the lower zone around $3,000-$3,300.

Fellow analyst Jelle said that ETH price needed to hold above the megaphone’s breakout level of $3,800 to avoid an “uncomfortable” pullback lower. 

“Hold here, and new all-time highs are next.”

As Cointelegraph reported, a collapse below $3,800 could accelerate a deeper correction toward the lower target of a symmetrical triangle at $3,400.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.